Using Agent Based Distillations To Model Civil Violence Management

6-1-5.jpg
6-1-5.jpg

Using Agent Based Distillations To Model Civil Violence Management

9.95

Author(s): Andrew W. Gill; Peng Shi; Sau Yee Yiu
No pages: 6
Year: 2003
Article ID: 6-1-5
Keywords: homeland security, operations other than war, system dynamics, terrorism, training and analysis
Format: Electronic (PDF)

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Abstract: A model of civil violence has recently been built and studied by Joshua Epstein at the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics in the USA using a remarkably simple cellular automata (CA) simulation. However, the model and its analysis were based on the assumption that the entities have purely random movement, which limits the degree of realism of the model. The Australian Defence Science and Technology Organisation (DSTO) has access to a more sophisticated cellular automata simulation known as MANA, developed by the Defence Technology Agency in NZ. Recently, DSTO has developed a similar civil violence model to incorporate various movement strategies of the entities by using the MANA simulation. This paper describes the model and the analysis of the data, which included graphical, statistical and game theory techniques, and which provide some initial thoughts on the effectiveness of various strategies for managing civil violence. These results may also have applicability in other Operations Other Than War (OOTW) scenarios, including peace keeping and counter-terrorism. Finally, based on the analysis, two extensions to the MANA model are suggested.