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The task of managing risks
effectively is confounded by a classical paradox. That is, if risks are being effectively managed as a matter
of routine, life can become boring. There
will be very few surprises. Nobody
becomes aware of just how effective risk management actions actually taken, have
proven to be. Nobody slaps you on
the back and congratulates you for a job exceedingly well done: in contrast, if
something goes wrong and the whole world lines up to tell you so.
In
risk management, today’s man-made situations are very frequently created in
the days, months, or years before anything untoward is seen, meaning that risk
cause-and-effect are not always proximate in time and space. Significant
delays may be involved and the cause may not be within our immediate view, and
the effect when it happens comes as a surprise.
The
best that an effective risk manager can expect to achieve in the way of gaining
kudos for their work is to follow-up a disastrous situation, to clean up the
mess created by a predecessor. However, to think in such a way is both
mercenary and selfish. Generally speaking, there is little kudos to be
gained by being an effective risk manager.
This
book starts with the hypothesis that effective risk management derives from
being acutely aware of what is happening. Situation
awareness verges on being a nervous state of heightened sensitivity to what
is going on, and what might happen at some stage in the future. We might
envisage ourselves sitting in the back seat of every car speeding down the
highway on a foggy or rainy night. We sit nervously, and silently,
watching the actions every driver dealing with the treacherous conditions.
We may imagine an impending pile up, but like being in a nightmare we are unable
to speak. We are only able to observe and wonder at the likely future
events. |
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