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1 MANAGERIAL COGNITION AND CAUSALITY
1.1 A Paradox and a
Polar Bear
1.2 Stakeholder Involvement in Risk Management
1.3 Need to Understand Managerial Cognition First
1.4 Mapping What We Know About the Problem at Hand
1.5 Knowledge Elicitation Based on Managerial Cognition
1.6 Importance of Communications in Decision Cycles
1.7 Dynamic and Complex Beyond Our Intuition
1.8 Developing Mental Agility
1.9 Superior Insights Lead to Superior Learning
1.10 Barriers to Learning and Effective Decision making in Dynamically Complex
Environments
1.11 Systems of Knowledge-Power
1.12 Finding Out About A Problem Situation
1.13 Learning Opportunities Lost
1.14 Summary
2 WORST FAILURE—FAILURE TO LEARN ABOUT RISKS
2.1 More than a Simple
Accident
2.2 Black Hawk Helicopter Crash—Case Study Overview
2.3 Insights Derived from Feedback Loops
2.4 Identifying Where to Apply Risk-management Effort
2.5 Focus on Critical Nodes
2.6 Breakdown in Management of Risks
2.7 Pitfalls and Pointers of Concept Mapping Practice
2.8 Summary
3 ROYAL CANBERRA HOSPITAL IMPLOSION AND FURTHER
INSIGHTS
3.1 Events Gone so
Horribly Wrong
3.2 Implosion Inquiry: No Simple Answers
3.3 Identifying Candidates for Quantitative Modelling
3.4 Value of Mapping
3.5 The Business Dynamics Context
3.6 Reflecting on Our Desire for Simple Answers
3.7 Failure to Learn—Far Too Common
3.8 Major Risk Key Performance Indicators
3.9 Observations About the Use of Concept Mapping as an Analytical Tool
3.10 Difficulties of Amalgamating Maps
3.11 Summary
4 COMING TO GRIPS WITH ‘WICKED’ PROBLEMS IN
RISKY SITUATIONS
4.1 Reflection on
Difficulties in Managing Risks
4.2 Brief Reflection on the Black Hawk Helicopter Crash
4.3 Aversion to Dealing with Excessively Complex Issues
4.4 Cognitive Dissonance
4.5 Cultural Impediments—Being Insensitive to Risks
4.6 Winning the Information Needed to Enable Analysis
4.7 Stakeholder Management
4.8 Why Complex Problems are Difficult to Manage
4.9 Characteristics of Wicked Problems and Strategies for Addressing Them
4.10 Summary
5 ADDRESSING WICKED RISK-MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS
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5.1 Seeking Effective
Problem-Solving Methodology
5.2 Systems Thinking and System Dynamics Modelling Principles—Keys to
Understanding
5.3 Utility of Qualitative Analysis
5.4 Iterative and Interactive Strategy Development
5.5 Summary
6 APPLICATION OF IISD: A TUTORIAL FOR REAL-LIFE
PROBLEMS
6.1 Disappointingly
Ineffective in Managing Complexity
6.2 Tutorial—Preview
6.3 Nature of the Tutorial Problem—Brief Overview
6.4 The Directors’ Quandary
6.5 Putting ThreeTwoOne-Ready Back on Track—First Steps
6.6 Accommodating Stakeholder Perspectives
6.7 Working with Subgroups to Elicit Their Views of the Problem Situation
6.8 Production an ‘Executive Summary’ Concept Map
6.9 Analysis of Dynamic Behaviour Using Causal Loop or Influence Diagramming
6.10 Implementation and Monitoring
6.11 Pitfalls and Pointers Identified During Attempts at Solving ThreeTwoOne’s
Problem
6.12 Reaction to IISD and System Dynamics Modelling
6.13 Summary
7 TAKING ACTION
7.1 Attitudes
Constrain Awareness
7.2 Managing Complexity—Building a Multi-Dimensional Jigsaw Puzzle
7.3 Strategies for Building the Risk-Management Puzzle
7.4 Highly Desirable Elements of Risk-management Culture
7.5 The Risk-management Process
7.6 Navigating the Risk-management Process and Making the ‘Right’
Decisions
7.7 Vigilance and Continual Iteration
7.8 Taking up the Cudgel
ABBREVIATIONS
GLOSSARY
INDEX
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