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Abstract. The paper reports on research into how effectiveness of military
systems may be calculated, in the light of recent advances
in systems science and simulation methods. An alternative approach to
conventional methods for calculating effectiveness is proposed. This "white-box" approach
envisages a combat simulation where C3I technology, human behaviours and
decision-making processes are explicitly represented, including (most importantly) their many,
mutual interactions. The simulation further envisages two combatants, and measures
the effect that each has on the other; hence, measures
their comparative effectiveness. It is possible to identify putative emergent
properties, capabilities and behaviours of combatants in given scenarios and
environments. It is also possible to adjust the (simulated) performance
of pieces of technology, individually and in sets. This enables
the contribution of various equipments to overall effectiveness to be
both observed and optimised. Hence, it is potentially possible to
identify what the performance of each equipment should be, to
maximise overall C3I effectiveness.
In particular, the research was interested in
the impact of COTS on C3I effectiveness within a naval
domain. This was assessed by representing both combatants as having
identical, bespoke technological systems, operated by identically trained and experienced
personnel. Identical effectiveness then emerges from each combatant. Holding one
combatant steady as a dynamic reference, a single item of
equipment was changed in the other combatant from bespoke to
COTS. Any subsequent change in effectiveness was attributable exclusively to
that one change. It was also possible to explore the
effects of continual upgrades to COTS over extended periods.
Using this
white-box approach, it seems possible to approach procurement by identifying
the performance and other characteristics of equipments as they contribute
synergistically to overall C3I effectiveness. This leads to performance measures
for equipments being seen, not as individual quantities, but as
interactive contributors to overall effectiveness. Since the simulation also represents
costs of maintenance and support of technology, bespoke or COTS,
it is also possible to determine the overall value of
COTS versus bespoke on a scientific basis. The approach also
enables radical tradeoffs to be explored. For instance, it may
be possible to trade-off the cost of command team training
against the cost of enhanced weapons.
Related topics:
systems engineering, defence procurement, management
View first page of "Hitchins: A Systems Approach to Defence Procurement"
Papers by Hitchins
Papers by Jaber
Papers by Moulding
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